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Housing Prices Decline Further Case-Shiller Index

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Housing Prices Decline Further Case-Shiller Index

Housing Prices decline continued in 19 of 20 markets tracked in the S&P Case-Shiller Index of housing prices, the leading measure of US housing prices. The housing prices decline of 1.3% for both the 10- and 20-City Composite Housing Prices Index in November over October.

According to Case-Shiller. for a second consecutive month, housing prices in 19 of the 20 cities covered by the indices also saw home price declines. The 10- and 20-City Case-Shiller Composites posted annual returns of -3.6% and -3.7% versus November 2010, respectively. These housing prices are worse than the -3.2% and -3.4% respective rates reported for October. In addition to both Composites, 13 of the 20 MSAs saw housing price declines compared to October’s data.

New York and Tampa saw no change in annual housing prices in November. Charlotte, Cleveland, Denver, Minneapolis and Phoenix saw their annual rates improve. At -11.8% Atlanta continued to post the weakest housing prices. Detroit and Washington DC were the only two cities to post positive annual returns of +3.8% and +0.5%, respectively, in November, according to Case-Shiller. While positive, both cities saw these annual rates fall versus October’s data.

“Despite continued low interest rates and better real GDP growth in the fourth quarter, housing prices continue to fall. Weakness in home prices was seen as 19 of 20 cities saw average home prices decline in November over October,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices, the company that publishes the Case-Shiller Index. “The only positive for the month was Phoenix, one of the hardest hit in recent years. Annual rates were little better as 18 cities and both Composites were negative. Nationally, home prices are lower than a year ago. The 10-City Composite was down 3.6% and the 20-City was down 3.7% compared to November 2010. The trend is down and there are few, if any, signs in the numbers that a turning point is close at hand. Home prices, it seems, are destined to remain soft for some time to come.

“The crisis low for the 10-City Composite was April 2009; for the 20-City Case-Shiller Composite the more recent low was March 2011. The 10-City Composite is now about 1.0% above its low, and the 20-City Composite is only 0.6% above its low. From their 2006 peaks, home prices in both composites are down close to 33% through November.

“Atlanta continues to stand out in terms of recent relative weakness. It was down 2.5% over the month, after having fallen by 5.0% in October, 5.9% in September and 2.4% in August. It also posted the weakest annual return, down 11.8%. In addition, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Seattle and Tampa all reached new lows in November.”

Housing Prices Revert To Mid-2003 Levels

The chart above shows the Case-Shiller Index levels for the 10-City and 20-City Composite Indices of home prices. As of November 2011, average home prices across the United States are back to the levels where they were in mid-2003. Measured from their June/July 2006 peaks through November 2011, the peak-to-current decline for both the Case-Shiller 10-City and 20-City Composite is -32.9%. The recovery from recent lows are +1.0% and +0.6%, respectively.

As in October 2011, Phoenix was the only MSA that posted a monthly gain, +0.6% in November. In both the 10-City and 20-City Case-Shiller Composite housing prices were down 1.3%, from their October 2011 levels. Atlanta, Cleveland, Detroit and Las Vegas were the four cities where average home prices were below their January 2000 levels.

About Case-Shiller Housing Prices Index

The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are revised for the 24 prior months, based on the receipt of additional source data. More than 24 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed on the Case-Shiller Website.

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